It's that time of the year again. Once again, I have to peer into the Crystal Ball, seek out Solomon, and find a wise choise to win the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. However, even before I turned on the hidden light below the con man's table to light up the cheap plastic 'crystal ball,' a ghostly voice shouted, "Duke, you fool. Duke!'
Who am I to argue the obvious. So, that's the name you want. Go forth and bracket yourself to your heart's limit.
The Tournament Committee did a LOT of great work this year, making for some interesting matchups. Cheers for including Belmont when Alabama or TCU would have been a politically expedient choice. The final four in were reasonable and, other than a plea for UNC Greensboro, nobody should have been too despondent that they didn't get in. But imagine if the Committee had decided Greensboro and Lipscomb were deserving of an upset chance and Arizona State and Syracuse could enjoy a good run in the N.I.T.? Honestly, wouldn't a rule that you couldn't be eligible to play in the NCAA tournament without a winning league record or a quarter-final victory in your league championship be a good rule?
We've had teams win the NCAA tournament after starting their league tournament with a .500 record. And teams with losing records (but with interesting stories) make the tourney with good league tournament runs. So, there are always going to be good seventh, eighth, dare I say ninth-place teams to make March Madness fun. That said, there are another few steps before we can declare the Committee 'woke.' Shouldn't the nation deserve seeing some of these small school stars, rather than yet one more loss by a tenth seed from a major conference, who've been on TV all year long? But getting Belmont in this year and increasing the number of at-large bids for non-Power Six leagues for the second straight year is something to nod approval over.
For all that, the ... choice to ditch Michigan State in Duke's regional is beyond comprehension. The Spartans are better today than they were last week as Nick Ward health improves. The Spartans have, arguably, the best game coach in the biz in Tom Izzo. The Spartans proved tourney tough, taking out Michigan ... no small task that ... for the THIRD TIME this year, in the Big Ten finale. And yet, rather than write a fantastic fantasy for this year (Stick State in with either Virginia or North Carolina, have them beat their region-mates in the elite eight, the other one in the semi-finals and then see Duke in the final ... with Ward to physically contend with Zion Williamson ...) but chose to hose the Spartans for WINNING the Big Ten. Apparently the two Michiganders were slotted into the tourney depending on who won. Yeah, Izzo's going to reconsider this coaching to win thing in the future.
So, it's Duke over Gonzaga in the Final four and then taking out North Carolina in Tobacco Road Brawl IV in the final. I love the way Virginia plays, but it's really apparent that if you are properly prepared for them, and any ONE of the disparate parts that make Virginia great doesn't show up ... the Cavaliers are beatable. Granted, Duke and Florida State have sole rights to say they're beatable. But school is all about lessons learned. And I can't see Roy Williams not learning what Florida State taught him.
Let's see, hmmmm, four number one seeds in the final four. How very ... adventurous of me. Hmmmm, actually it is. The odds are significantly against the four ones making the Minny road trip to finish the year. So, I'm ALLLLL about the upsets ... 'cept in the Regional finals.
Now, March Madness requires upsets. And the Committee has certainly raised expectations for some floor-storming contingents from the lesser schools. In fact, I saw one prominent Bracketologist pick all four 12 seeds to beat the respective 5 seeds and spent zero time speculating that he might be wrong. It was like he pre-determined all five seeds (theoretically, each are top 20 teams!!) were dead on arrival.
Upsets in the NCAA occur when the lower seeded team manages to control the tempo of the game. Usually by playing tough belly to belly defence with perimeter protecting ballhawks being assisted by some tough paint play by the big men. And they have to have three-point bombers since SOMEBODY has to provide offence. Occasionally, a run-and-gun upset-minded school gets the coach from their intended victim to play along. And we have some opportunity to see that this year. But the upset darlings are going to be the tough defensive teams that can hang in there until the final minute, either making the requisite free throws to protect a lead, or hitting a buzzer-beater to eliminate whatever hero play came from the better seeded team second(s) before.
Let's take a look at where I think upsets are there for the taking. The defensive battles PROBABLY won't include Syracuse and Syracuse West (aka Washington). I used to think their zones were so tough to play for, that no team could do it on short notice in a weekend game. But familiarity has bred content over the years. Ohhh, the zone works. It keeps teams as talented as Syracuse and Washington IN games their talent might not otherwise have them competitive. But eventually, attacking the free throw line with better talent prevails. So, despite my pre-Championship Week thinking that Washington might be a dark horse, I'm not going down that track. Championship Week DID change my opinions ... about six times over the five days leading up to Selection Sunday. The opinions are still changing ... based on injury reports for the likes of Markus Howard of Marquette or Dean Wade of Kansas State or the coaching availability of Will Wade for LSU, for instance (Mark Benford's coaching job in LSU's loss in the SEC quarter-finals was among the worst I have ever seen. Without Wade at the helm for LSU, I don't see much chance the Bayou Bengals see the second week).
Let's talk upsets in the non-upset 8/9 games first. Oddly enough, who pops up here? Why both Syracuse AND Washington!!! Let's stop the hysteria and declare Syracuse off-limits for upset by Baylor, in a battle of zone teams. First, Baylor's Big 12 and that's NOT a good thing this year. (Oh, the Pac 12 was worse, but the Big 12 had BIG dreams to start the year and from Kansas on down, tripped over those dreams). Second, both Tyus Battle and Frank Howard were missing in action for several Syracuse defeats. The Orange went from bubble to 8 when Buddy Boeheim went career game crazy in the ACC Tournament and he'll go back to a little used sub this week. So, Syracuse is through. With a chance to beat Gonzaga? No. Not with the Orange front line trying to deal with Rui Hachimura and one of the unsung Canucks in the tournament, Brandon Clarke. Shutout to 'cuse's Oshae Brissett, also a proud Canadian.
Whither Washington? Yeah, I'm going to buck some general perception and say that Utah State, bruited to have SOME chance against North Carolina, will be thinking about the Tarheels and overlook Washington, owner of the saddest of the regular-season crowns and a series of poor, poorer and poorest performances in the Pac 12 Tournament. Still, this is a team who's leader Matisse Thybulle is a spiritual successor to Gary Payton as a ballhawk. And even in wins and defeats, Washington tended to slow down teams. So, take Washington for the upset, ONE upset mind you, in the Mid West. The other two 8/9 games almost bore me. Oklahoma is Big 12, so, despite some enthusiasm for the Sooners from some Bracketologists, I'll take Ole Miss from the SEC. And VCU SHOULD take out Central Florida to hold the line ... BUT watching the Rams contend with the Knights' Tacko Fall, who's a FOOT taller than any VCU player he will go up against (or close enough), that I'm interested in SEEING the game. Problem is, VCU plays tough D and Central Florida just doesn't have the long-range howitzers to unpack the Ram defence. But it'll be interesting.
Moving on ... the 7/10 games start with the most interesting kick off to a tournament in some time. And it has nothing to do with the teams. Richard Pitino's Minnesota Gophers will tangle with the Louisville Cardinals, the home of his father for many, many years ... before he was fired last year in the ripples of the FBI College Recruiting Scandal. Rick, the Senior, eventually went off to Europe to coach (and win back some acclaim). But he'll be sure to be there in Gopher colours in spirit when the tourney tips off. I'd have taken Minnesota against many teams JUST LIKE Louisville, but the extra energy 'winning one for Coach' will bring to THIS matchup has me thinking Louisville is the better pick. They've already been through the Pitino tumult. I expect them to be calmer and more concentrated. Plus, on paper, they are a better team. (And by the way, I agree with the boos for the Committee in setting up this distraction)
Having dissed the Committee for that one, let me tell ya, the other three are going to be fun. The Committee heard all the Little Guy talk and gave Swofford some real props with a 7 seed. Then turned Seton Hall loose on them. Sorry, but the Pirates are playing REAL good basketball against REAL good teams of late. Swofford can only say the first half of that. So, Seton Hall for the upset. I almost wanted to repeat the same thing with Iowa against Cincinnati, but the Bearcats are not a big bad bullfrog in with guppies. So, I will take Cincy to hold chalk. Which leaves me with the most really delicious of the head to heads in this seeding, Nevada vs Florida in the West (where all the action is). Granted, Florida is part of my personal Kryptonite (along with Kansas and Michigan State). It just seems like I ALWAYS pick them, and outside of the championship years, it's been a mistake every time. And add the fact that Canuck Andrew Nembhard is the reason why Florida is IN the tournament and I have bias written all over my face as I type Florida WILL upset Nevada. The Gators are a team of pluggers while Nevada has the Martin boys, Caleb and Cody, plus another backcourt ace in Jordan Caroline, but the Wolfpack are going to get in trouble from the perimeter. The memories of last year's tourney run might have Nevada stuck between reliving glory and expecting respect that a single year doesn't get them ... yet. On the other hand neither team's beating John Beilein's mad as hell Michigan team featuring the burbling personality of Canuck Izzy Bradeikis on the weekend anyway. So, much ado about an upset.
The 6/11 games are ALMOST yawn-inducing with the exception of everybody's favourite upset pick, Belmont, to sidle past Temple tonight and then dispatch the overly-youthful Maryland Terrapins in the round of 64. The Bruins are aged in leadership, athletic in youth and will be able to off-set the one Maryland strength, rebounding. Belmont is a disciplined team and when that crunch moment arrives, the Bruins will be able to prevail. And with nobody fearing LSU or Yale in the weekend matchup, it might be smart of Belmont's fans and players to bring some extra luggage.
Buffalo is going to beat in-state opponent St. John's. Sure, it would be interesting if the Red Storm failed to beat the Arizona State Sun Devils merely because the State coach is Bobby Hurley, but St. John's SEEMS like a probable winner of the First Four play-in. The Bulls are sneaky good and have been for awhile after having Hurley revive the program. But he left the program in good hands as Nate Oats seems to be ready for some national recognition, as is star C.J. Massinburg. The real fun for Buffalo won't end until Michigan does them in next week. Iowa State (with some primo Canadian talent in Mariel Shayock and Lindell Wigginton) is going to be happy and sad all within a three-day period. Happy to beat Ohio State in a battle of midwest State schools. Sad that Houston looms on the weekend. Well, it will be the end of a good whirlwind year for the Cyclones. Which brings us to the OTHER 6/11 game that has fans all atwitter. Like Belmont, the winner of this Villanova-Saint Mary's game has a fair chance of playing next week. Nobody thinks Purdue's a three-seed. So, do you pick the guys that keep winning at this time of the year, Villanova, winners of two of the last three national crowns, or Saint Mary's, who dispatched the number one team in the country a week ago, BY THIRTEEN points, in it's tournament final? On one level, it doesn't matter. This is going to be a great game. On the other hand, 'Nova has Jay Wright coaching them. And in the end, thumbs down on an upset ... but it'll be fun to watch.
Now, the dreaded and anticipated 5/12 seeds get their examination. First off, NO SWEEP by the 12's. Ain't gonna happen. The fact that 12's are ALMOST a 50-50 proposition this century is mind-boggling. That all of that boggling is in the past needs being reminded of. Still...
Never saw Liberty play this year. Saw Ole Miss play. If Liberty is as good as some say, then Liberty to chalk one up for the non-chalk crowd. Murray State vs Marquette (in one of the MUST see games this year). Ja Morant, the likely second pick in the coming NBA draft, vs. Markus Howard. The still team-oriented Murray State Racers vs the Marquette One-Man Band. And Howard's hand injury is certainly going to be a topic of consideration. So, on the narrowest of margins, note a nose, but a sore hand, it's Murray State to add to the rotten state of Chalk. Wisconsin and the monster year Ethan Happ is having vs Oregon, the pre-season national contenders, turned pretenders when Bol Bol's college career ended before it really began, turned red-hot Pac 12 Tournament champions on the weekend. Remember my bell-to-belly admonishment? It applies here. Oregon makes it three 12's to break Chalk. Wait, didn't I say no sweep by the 12's. Yep, I did.
Auburn will run the Aggies of New Mexico State back to the plains with the kind of furious attack that harkens back to the Marymount Lions heydays. No, NOT the 140+ heyday, but this might be the highest-scoring game of the tournament. And isn't Bruce Pearl doing a great coaching job. He's got his Tigers believing. And I can't believe the 5 seeds will go oh-fer. Auburn will hold the line. But it IS amazing how unhappy the Committee makes teams by giving them the 5 seed, isn't it. Oh, and Auburn just won't defend the honour of 5's everywhere, they are booked to play next week, too.
Only 4/13 game worth talking about is Kansas State and UC Irvine. And sad to say, the Anteaters will trample The Wildcats if Dean Wade isn't back. Might anyways. But his likely unavailability takes a regular-season team that had something to be proud of and turned them into an overseed. Still, it takes a lot for a 13 seed to win. Except the odds are that one does most years this century. And since none of the other ones make any sense as an upset pick, I'll play the math and call for UC Irvine to hold the honour of the 13's and send K-State packing.
Going from boring to not boring at all, at all, we now look at the 3/14 matchups and wonder just what the Committee saw that I don't. Starting with LSU. A VERY GOOD team with woeful coaching and a penchant to blow up ... which explains why the presence or the lack thereof of Will Wade thanks to that FBI thing, makes a world of difference. I have NO faith in LSU beating a disciplined (is their any OTHER kind out of the Ivy League) Yale team. Oh, they can still do it on sheer talent. But even if they do talent themselves past Yale, Belmont awaits. Nope, I'll take the easy route and call for Yale to knock off the Tigers. I'm not suggesting Texas Tech will have any issues with Northern Kentucky out West. But I AM saying Buffalo beats them on the weekend. The BEST of the 3's, Houston, might be playing in the Final Four, so forget upsets chances with the Cougars vs Georgia State, although it's nice to see Ron Hunter back in the tournament without the danger of son R.J. inflicting any physical harm upon him. Which brings me to Purdue, overseeded, against Old Dominion. I've got my one first round upset in this seed. I don't HAVE to pick Old Dominion. I WANT to pick the Monarchs. But I think Carsen Edwards has one more great college game in him. So, chalk to Purdue, doom against Oregon on the weekend.
NO, just NO! No 15's and especially NO 16's brought their bathing suits to the first round. They'll towel off at home. I'd love to see Abilene Christian upend Kentucky because, well, it's Kentucky. And my favourite three coaches to rag on are John Calipari, John Calipari and John Calipari. He's a lousy in-game coach, but off-sets that by being a great recruiter. How much of that great is Kentucky's home court advantage and how much is Jocular John is anybody's guess. But he recruits successfully. Now, eventually, I expect Kentucky's program, like those of UMass and Memphis, to rue the day he was hired. But he's on a long, long run of ruining my enjoyment of college basketball. I'm hoping Houston can do him in, but if they don't, then I expect North Carolina to win the Battle of Blue in the regional final. Still, wouldn't it be GREATTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!! if Abilene Christian did us all a favour?!?!
I think that's eleven total first week upsets. Out of 48 games. Close enough to one in four. And THAT is why March Madness is, or should be, a National Holiday in North America. Fans, and people who KNOW fans, should be at home or down at the local purveyor of beverages to watch this miracle of entertaining TV.
As most of you know, I stay with chalk most of the rest of the way in the tournament. Trying to suss out upsets in the second week can be a fool's errand. Prior unforeseen upsets, injuries, horrible officiating ... it makes a mug out of anyone, let alone somebody with the last name Mugford, to pretend he KNOWS destiny's outcome. Still, by staying with chalk you won't be far wrong.
Who do I think might step into the Final Four I have seeded to the 1's? Michigan State still has to be feared. Izzo is the game's best game coach (although Florida's Mike White is a comer). Ward and Xavier Tillman provide the heft and height to make Zion Williamson at least think a BIT about charging to the hoop. And Cassius Winston sure makes Izzo look prophetic when he predicted great things three years ago for his then frosh guard. But no, I just don't think Duke's ready to be beat by the Spartans. If they get Marques Bolden back next week, it will be a full-strength Duke squad. Lights out. The fun regional is the West, but all the fun will evaporate next week. Chalk all the way with Michigan not the type of team I expect Gonzaga to fear.
Virgina will waltz into the Final Four after dancing with Tennessee in the regional final. Virgina is the most upset-available of the 1's because their offence needs everybody clicking when they play good teams. Problem is, nobody in the region other than the Volunteers qualifies as a good enough team. UNC has plenty of people to trip over in the Region of Death, the Midwest. The Tarheels COULD lose to Utah State (NOT BLOODY LIKELY), Auburn (the game will be closer than Roy Williams would like) and then either Houston (unlikely) or Kentucky (the Evil Empire looms as a SERIOUS threat depending on how PJ Washington gets out of bed that day). Still, to have a Tobacco Road Brawl IV, me must have a North Carolina-Duke finals.
Can Gonzaga, the sole team in the country to beat a full-strength Duke squad, pose a semi-final threat? Of course they can. But at the time of the loss, Duke was R.J. Barrett's team. It's Zion's team now (much as I would like Barrett, a credit to my country and a spectacularly good kid be THE star). And that's a difference with a distinction. Barrett's still there, having largely held up his end of the dynamic duo, while Zion was away getting new shoes. And what about Virgina and their regular season superiority over North Carolina? Why not an intra-state ACC final? Sure, it could happen and anybody who likes basketball likes Virginia's team play, but I want that BRAWL in the final. So, logic dictates Virgina falling on its sword to do so.
There you have it. The million-dollar bracket.
