Of course, in honour of the late great Alex Trebek, a fellow Canadian, the answer is: Who will win the 2021 NCAA Men's Basketball championship in Indianapolis the first week of April.
Now, as things go, this is about the least unlikely champion pick in the tournament that I have ever made. Which should worry you. It's been 45 years since the Little General, Bobby Knight, guided his Indiana Hoosiers to a perfect season. Five times since then, schools have stumbled after perfect regular seasons. This time, the sixth sense says bet the Zags.
Along with 60 per cent of the betting public in all likelihood.
I haven't done a deep dive, looking for defensive teams with senior point guards, a pair of good three point shooters (if not more), good defense, GREAT rebounding and having momentum. THAT's the definition of an upset school. So, a LOT of my upset picks are gut shots. And for a change, I'm entering in my true picks in the Gontram Architecture pool that welcomes this Canuck into the free pool every year. And I've never come close to winning a free meal at the local diner of choice. Not once. So, I'm not filling in a lot of pools this year AND I'm starting with Eddie Gontram's pool first. With my best guess.
First Four games starting tomorrow? The one that everybody wants to see is Tom Izzo and Michigan State against UCLA (and Mick Cronin, a guy I like quite a lot). But everybody knows I think Izzo is one of the best coaches in the college ranks, ever. Sooooo, the Spartans to party. And I like the game to be a great tourney lid-lifter. Drake over Wichita State despite me being a Shocker supporter generally. Mount St. Mary's over Texas Southern is another wish pick, mostly because I think MSM can give Michigan a tussle in what is usually a 1-16 bore, Lastly, I've got Norfolk St. beating Appalachian St on a pure coin toss.
So, that's my field. And I've got a chalk board to go, with a total of 14 upsets, eight of which go in the first round Friday and Saturday. I'm upset-light in the West compared to some of the upset darlings of the big name prognosticators. Just UC Santa Barbara, who will fulfill everybody's hopes by downing Creighton. As far as Ohio, VCU and Mizzou? Nope. But in the SECOND round, and even-numbered round that I traditionally mark chalk and be done with it, I have UCSB taking out Virginia AND USC bouncing Kansas. Just not that convinced the COVID-belaboured Jayhawks, one of my usual picks, are going to be ready for the USC size, due to lack of practice time. But other than those upsets, Gonzaga will have an issue working up a sweat getting to the Final Four.
My most upsetting region is the East. I like St. Bonaventure over LSU in an 8-9 match-up and Michigan State will go on a bit of a run by adding BYU to it's victim list. It'll end with BYU, 'cuz Texas is going to end the party in the second round. And then we come to Georgetown who are one of the reasons Louisville didn't make the field. The Hoyas stole berth 68 or even 67 from the Cardinals when they ran the list in the Big East tourney at Madison Square Gardens, the newest version of which, Patrick Ewing had some part in building. His defensive monsters will swarm Colorado in a defensive showdown and then add Florida State in round two to the run. And it won't end there. Yep, Georgetown will take down Juwan Howard's Michigan top seeds in the region before meeting it's match in Alabama. The Crimson Tide will have had some practice with defence first basketball when dispatching Rick Pitino's Iona squad in the first round. Think it sticks in the Cardinal's craw that Louisville is out and Pitino is in?
The staid South will see Winthrop bounce the Wildcats of Villanova in the first round to give the tournament THREE #12 seeds advancing, and I like Utah State to do in Texas Tech. Why? I think western teams are generally under-seeded and this was a team that gave the Pacific sides competition all year long. And aside from Baylor, the top seed in this region, I just don't have Big 12 supporter-itis this year. Or ACC devotion either. So, go figure. Only OTHER upset in the region, I have Arkansas doing in Ohio State in a mini-upset before bowing out to Baylor in the regional final.
Leaves me with the MidEast which starts with two upsets in the opening round and ends with Houston upsetting Illinois in the regional final. The first-rounders are the usual 8-9 game where I expect the rapidly improving Georgia Tech Rambling Wreck to take down the Loyola Chicago Ramblers (sorry Sister Jean, I truly respect anybody who can travel at age 101 to support her boys, but not this time) and I think Tennessee is reeling as the season finishes and the Oregon State Beavers will win the battle of the Orange. (San Diego St. will takedown Syracuse in another battle of the Orange, but that won't be an upset ... unless Buddy Boeheim, one of my favourite players in the event, goes truly off, which he IS able to do). The Beavers are the partners of the Hoyas in sidelining Louisville, stealing the auto bid in the Pac 12.
Final Four will end with Gonzaga taking down Baylor in the long-delayed showdown between the two best teams of not only this year, but of the last two years (in total). I think it will be a comfortable win, but I just don't think there is a weal-point Baylor can expose in the Gonzaga game. Andrew Nembhard gets to hoist the cut-down twine and that's all right with me.
Player-wise, enjoy Cade Cunningham, who can't improve his draft position, as he leads the Cowboys of Oklahoma State past Liberty (a must-watch first round game) and then Oregon State before Illinois finishes his college career. Evan Mobley and USC will make noise as I noted. Jay Suggs won't be the best Zag, maybe not in any of the team's games. But he's the third of my NBA top picks I think bears watching.
I want to see Zach Edey with Purdue and the Oregon Duck Canucks, especially Chris Duarte. I have Purdue winning twice, Oregon once. Luka Garza isn't Canadian, but I have an appreciation of great college players who won't be great NBA players. He'll end his career with yet another loss to Gonzaga, but three wins leading up to the loss will gild his legacy.
And those won't be the only players that are must see. The others? Well, a fortnight plus from now, you and I will both know. Enjoy.
