When asked in May
what I would do with the then-hot Toronto Blue Jays, my response was
“Trade ‘em, all and rebuild for the arrival of Vlady Guerrero Jr.
and Bo Bichette in 2019!” Obviously, Shapiro and Atkins failed to
telepathically heed my advice and instead stuck with the group as is.
So, what to do THIS off-season. Trade most of ‘em and rebuild for
the arrival of Guerrero and Bichette in 2019. Obviously!
I start the
off-season with the stunner, setting the stage for the re-emergence
of the Philadelphia Phillies as a contender and acquiring talent,
youth and payroll space in return. Marcus Stroman, one of the five
best AL pitchers this year and controllable until the next decade,
gets paired with what is PROBABLY JUST the Troy Tulowitzki contract (and eminence grise), plus
ex-Pirate prospects and now ex-Blue Jay prospects Harold Ramirez and
Reese McGuire to bring back outfielder Nick Williams, 3B Mikael
Franco and young pitching prospects Harold Arauz (gotta keep our
Harold holdings consistent) and Austin Davis. Arauz is something of a
comer and Davis is pure lottery ticket, code for left-handed. Having
re-upped ALMOST Ex-Blue Jay Marco Estrada, the Jays would then also
bring back Ryan Goins on another one-year deal.
I’ll explain why
about the trades later. Now, Shapiro has to dial up St. Louis and get
them to take Josh Donaldson, Roberto Osuna and Max Pentecost off
their hands for SS Paul DeJong, catcher Carson Kelly and almost
major-league ready pitching prospect Mike Mayers. The Cardinals would have to ship another mid-level prospect in the deal, but would hasten to acquire Donaldson, pairing him then on the Redbird's left side of the infield with newly-
signed Zack Cosert, a free agent fresh from the Cincy Reds. Cosert, who was looking at
slim pickings in free agency would sign so quickly, the pen would
burn through the contract parchment. Toronto would respond by
re-signing Brett Anderson. Hmmm, some ‘splaining to do on that one.
Lastly, the team
management would then try for lottery team luck by sending Kevin
Pillar, senior super-sub Steve Pearce and veteran bullpen lefty Aaron
Loup to the New York Mets for unable-bodied pitcher Matt Harvey,
prospect corner infielder Jhoan Urena (seems Urena’s go well in
T.O.) and years-away pitching prospect Nabil Crismat.
Okay, here come the
how-come’s/why-fors.
Stroman is the sole
big long-term loss for the team. Simply put, he’s worth a lot on
the open market and I think the Jays would be over-joyed to make the
proposed Phil trade. His increasingly antagonistic attitude might
bring back fond memories of Kyle Lowry, but do the Jays have time to
wait for his maturing? The team loses Tulowitzki and his Goins-esque
offence and par to sub-par defence, plus that massive locker-room
presence would seem a loss. But that $20 million pay cheque for THREE more seasons is
just a LITTLE TOO RICH for Canadian blood and bucks. And Stroman
isn’t going to be cheap much longer, as he enters arbitration.
Still, by giving up Stroman and the ‘seemingly easy to replace’
Tulowitzki’s field presence, the Jays get a starting outfielder in
Nick Williams. Plus a starting 3B in Franco, although the mercurial
Franco might end up in LF, 1B or somewhere other than in Toronto.
Bluntly, Franco is a major-league lottery ticket who might be a
reasonable Donaldson clone or Buffalo-bound or a trade dump to some
OTHER team that thinks he still has potential. As for the pitching
prospects, neither should see Toronto coming out of spring training
this decade. Next decade? Maybe.
As for Philadelphia,
the price here for Stroman appears to be Williams and an exchange of
hoped-for comeback kids in Franco for Tulowitzki. Yes, there’s cash
to pay out, but Philadelphia is out from under the horrid contracts
that saw the once-powerful Phillies descend into irrelevance due to
unmovable contracts. That day has ended, the new Ryan Howard, Rhys
Hoskins, has arrived and a new TV deal lets the club acquire Tulo’s
contract and not blanch. Ramirez probably doesn’t replace Williams,
but the team will go for a big-name add in the outfield that already
includes Oudebel Herrera and Aaron Altherr. Moving Williams creates
space. As for the former Pirates headed their way? Organizational
fodder, although McGuire fills a catching slot. For the Blue Jays, Arauz will probably
make the bigs, Davis probably won’t. But that’s what prospect
roulette is all about.
Now, over to St.
Louis, who has a catching prospect ready for the big-leagues in
Kelly, but is blocked til the next decade by Yadier Molina. And
rookie phenom DeJong still has to outlive his sophomore season and
the potential jinx (Aledmys Diaz anyone?). And the constant stream of
Cardinal pitching prospects will barely notice a dip into the waters
to lose Mayers. And in return, one of the three best third-baseman in
baseball, Donaldson, plus their new closer in Osuna and a catcher to
replace Kelly, but with a new best-arrival date of next decade, in
Pentecost. In different times, Donaldson and Pentecost get the deal
done. Probably. If the Cardinals can work out an extension with
Donaldson first. But to NOT have the guarantee in place with
Donaldson costs the long-term controllable Osuna. St. Loo might have
to throw in another prospect, with Austin Gomber, a left-handed
hurler at the AA level making some sense.
DeJong immediately
fills the bill for Tulowitzki’s replacement, giving Richard Urena
more time to mature with a full season in Buffalo. Urena, Bichette
and Guerrero percolate for another year. And infield group of those
three, DeJong and Delicate Devon Travis means having good, young
talent, enhanced by one more year of Goins for some guidance. Plus,
there’s Lourdes Gourriel en route and he’s an all-rounder who
hopefully comes along at the plate, in which case, the Jays will have
a LOT of interchangeable parts to man the infield and cover as fifth
outfielders.
Carson Kelly jumps
the Jays’ queue of catchers, giving Dan Jansen a season in Buffalo
to get better. Once he proves his offensive dream season this season
is sustainable, the Blue Jays could be looking at a Kelly-Jansen
tandem with Russell Martin around for guidance, to act as a third
catcher and do a little backing up at DH, 3B and maybe 2B, if
necessary. Or, a Martin tandem with one of the kids might play for
two or three years. The Jays also might be able to replace Stroman in
the starting line-up with Mayers, or he might head to the bullpen to
compete with the likes of Tom Koehler or he might be the plug-in
starter awaiting problems in Buffalo. But he’s close. And that
counts in the winter.
Which leaves me
trying to explain giving the New York Mets three members of their
starting 25 on opening day next year, without getting possibly
anything in the deal. It’ll be tough losing Pillar, he of the
Superman-quality catches. But all highlights aside, he’s NOT the
gold-glove centre fielder he’s portrayed as. In fact, he trails
Kevin Keiermayer again and has fallen behind Byron Buxton. Add in his
in ability to get his offence going, and now’s the time to sell.
Another season at the end of the Blue Jays’ batting line-up, with
little reason to move him up, might leave Toronto with an
untradeable, but popular, trade asset. And the Jays have outfielders
in the pipeline. The same reason can be applied to Pearce, who’s
rep is better than we saw this year, and to Loup, who is an example
of the old Branch Rickey saw, “Better to trade a player a year too
soon than a year too late.” Loup regained some of his mojo this
year, and remember, it’s LEFT-handed mojo. Out now, before the
trade idea starts to stink.
Harvey, the possible
Stroman replacement and possible new Brett Anderson, is the lottery
ticket here. He’s an ace a year away from free agency (and given
who his agent is, it’s almost guaranteed free agency). A good year
and the Jays recoup a prospect in the 30’s. Something less than a
good year, then the Jays didn’t spend much money. C’est la vie.
Jhoan Urena is a corner guy and Crismat a pitcher. Neither should
show up before Russell Martin retires. But both are good bets to at
least make The Show. But this whole trade is about selling declining
assets for a shot at Harvey for a season and a draft pick. And who
knows, maybe Harvey succeeds and likes Toronto enough to want to
stay. Hey, ask Marco Estrada if that’s possible.
So, what line-up
does John Gibbons trot out in 2018? Martin will catch and Justin
Smoak will play first base. Beyond that? Well, it’s nice to think
Travis will man second all year long. Not a great bet, but a big
winner if it comes true. DeJong will start at shortstop and Franco at
third. The outfield will have Teoscar Hernandez in centre, with Nick
Williams in right. In left? One of Anthony Alford, Dwight Smith Jr.
or Dalton Pompey will be in that spot come season’s start. Pompey’s
in a make or leave situation. The other two can be in Buffalo. Which
means I think Pompey might have an inside edge, if only he can stay
healthy. The DH will be Kendrys Morales. He was an asset this year,
barely. Next year he won’t be. And he’ll finish his contract as a
pinch-hitter. He is what he is, a mistake that’s nowhere as huge as
has been portrayed, but a mistake indeed. His switch-hitting power
doesn’t play given his slothfulness on the base-paths. The subs?
Kelly to play 60 cames as catcher, Goins, Ezequiel Carrerra as the
fourth outfielder (and possible LF starter) and a 3B-type free agent
who might get at bats in a platoon with Franco. Or Urena, who would
be better off playing full-time in Buffalo at every infield spot. But
I’ll stick with a one-year free agent. That’s the 13 slots for
offence.
The pitching staff
will be J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, Brett Anderson and
Joe Biagini/Matt Harvey. The loser of THAT battle will battle Tom
Koehler for the long-man on the relief staff. The new closer will be
Carlos Ramirez. He’ll probably give up a run in 2018. Probably.
Ryan Tepera, Danny Barnes and Dominic Leone seem like a decent trio
of righties. The left-handed alternatives are a little … young …
in Tim Mayza and Matt Dermody. But having shown they CAN pitch in the
majors this year, hopefully the bullpen will remain a strength. If
not, bullpens can be rebuilt on the fly. The key is Ramirez coming in
and doing a reasonable impression of Osuna at a fraction of the
price.
In all, the Jays
will lose the contracts of Donaldson, Tulowitzki and Jose Bautista,
as well as Loup, Osuna, Pilar, Pearce and Stroman. That’s something
approaching $80 million in 2018 potential compensation. The incoming
players won’t total a fourth of that. The Shapiro-Atkins tandem
COULD immediately start spending some of that money themselves.
Getting sixth, seventh and eighth starters wouldn’t be a bad idea.
The talent clock HAS been reset to 2019-2020, with enough pitching to
make Gibbons feel comfortable about that. And the newly athletic and
multi-postional capable squad would be fun to let run and rip.
In fact, what WOULD
2019 look like if Guerrero and Bichette over-achieve again? The
catching duo would probably be Kelly and Jansen. If not, Martin would
back-up there, at third, maybe at second and take the occasional turn
through the DH spot. The 1B would be Smoak and Travis would still be
at second. The left-side of the infield would be best buddies
Guerrero and Bichette, with DeJong and Franco being delegated to
back-up duties along with Martin. The OF would be Alford, Hernandez
and Williams. The extra outfielder would be Gourriel. And Morales
would pinch-hit. (Actually, Franco would probably be traded if both
Kelly and Jansen make the team). The DH? Rowdy Tellez. The starting
five pitchers would be Sanchez, (the perpetually re-signing) Estrada, Ryan Borucki, Mayers and Biagini/Anderson. The relievers would be the same set or some combination
that includes about the same mount of talent and payroll. And one
OTHER guy would be signed. Either a big bucks starting pitcher (or two) or a
closer (assuming Ramirez fails in next year’s audition). As I said
earlier, maybe Harvey likes Toronto.
And the pitching
talent would be starting to arrive. Sean Reid-Foley, Connor Greene,
Jon Harris, Tom Pannone, Justin Maese, Crismat, TJ Zeuch,
Luis Perdomo and Arauz. Jordan Romano, Francisco Rios and Shane
Dawson have their fans. The big bet on Ramirez is hedged by Nate
Pearson, who merely turned in a sub 1.00 ERA in leading Vancouver to
a title. He’s pitching starting pitcher innings right now, but
profiles as a closer … if that position is open.
Logan Warmouth, Richard Urena, Jhoan
Urena, Tim Lopes and Smith, Jr. would be potential
backups. On a viable Major League team. With a payroll that beggars
the addition of a big-time Free Agent. Or three. Alas, no spot for should be Blue-Jay lifer Goins. Sigh. But DeJong, Bichette, Warmouth and even Gourriel are shortstops by vocation. So's Richard Urena.
All for the price
for a learning season this coming year. An EXCITING season.
