Monday, October 30, 2017

Advice to Mark Shapiro, a LITTLE more publicly this time

When asked in May what I would do with the then-hot Toronto Blue Jays, my response was “Trade ‘em, all and rebuild for the arrival of Vlady Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette in 2019!” Obviously, Shapiro and Atkins failed to telepathically heed my advice and instead stuck with the group as is. So, what to do THIS off-season. Trade most of ‘em and rebuild for the arrival of Guerrero and Bichette in 2019. Obviously!

I start the off-season with the stunner, setting the stage for the re-emergence of the Philadelphia Phillies as a contender and acquiring talent, youth and payroll space in return. Marcus Stroman, one of the five best AL pitchers this year and controllable until the next decade, gets paired with what is PROBABLY JUST the Troy Tulowitzki contract (and eminence grise), plus ex-Pirate prospects and now ex-Blue Jay prospects Harold Ramirez and Reese McGuire to bring back outfielder Nick Williams, 3B Mikael Franco and young pitching prospects Harold Arauz (gotta keep our Harold holdings consistent) and Austin Davis. Arauz is something of a comer and Davis is pure lottery ticket, code for left-handed. Having re-upped ALMOST Ex-Blue Jay Marco Estrada, the Jays would then also bring back Ryan Goins on another one-year deal.

I’ll explain why about the trades later. Now, Shapiro has to dial up St. Louis and get them to take Josh Donaldson, Roberto Osuna and Max Pentecost off their hands for SS Paul DeJong, catcher Carson Kelly and almost major-league ready pitching prospect Mike Mayers. The Cardinals would have to ship another mid-level prospect in the deal, but would hasten to acquire Donaldson, pairing him then on the Redbird's left side of the infield with newly- signed Zack Cosert, a free agent fresh from the Cincy Reds. Cosert, who was looking at slim pickings in free agency would sign so quickly, the pen would burn through the contract parchment. Toronto would respond by re-signing Brett Anderson. Hmmm, some ‘splaining to do on that one.

Lastly, the team management would then try for lottery team luck by sending Kevin Pillar, senior super-sub Steve Pearce and veteran bullpen lefty Aaron Loup to the New York Mets for unable-bodied pitcher Matt Harvey, prospect corner infielder Jhoan Urena (seems Urena’s go well in T.O.) and years-away pitching prospect Nabil Crismat.

Okay, here come the how-come’s/why-fors.

Stroman is the sole big long-term loss for the team. Simply put, he’s worth a lot on the open market and I think the Jays would be over-joyed to make the proposed Phil trade. His increasingly antagonistic attitude might bring back fond memories of Kyle Lowry, but do the Jays have time to wait for his maturing? The team loses Tulowitzki and his Goins-esque offence and par to sub-par defence, plus that massive locker-room presence would seem a loss. But that $20 million pay cheque for THREE more seasons is just a LITTLE TOO RICH for Canadian blood and bucks. And Stroman isn’t going to be cheap much longer, as he enters arbitration. Still, by giving up Stroman and the ‘seemingly easy to replace’ Tulowitzki’s field presence, the Jays get a starting outfielder in Nick Williams. Plus a starting 3B in Franco, although the mercurial Franco might end up in LF, 1B or somewhere other than in Toronto. Bluntly, Franco is a major-league lottery ticket who might be a reasonable Donaldson clone or Buffalo-bound or a trade dump to some OTHER team that thinks he still has potential. As for the pitching prospects, neither should see Toronto coming out of spring training this decade. Next decade? Maybe.

As for Philadelphia, the price here for Stroman appears to be Williams and an exchange of hoped-for comeback kids in Franco for Tulowitzki. Yes, there’s cash to pay out, but Philadelphia is out from under the horrid contracts that saw the once-powerful Phillies descend into irrelevance due to unmovable contracts. That day has ended, the new Ryan Howard, Rhys Hoskins, has arrived and a new TV deal lets the club acquire Tulo’s contract and not blanch. Ramirez probably doesn’t replace Williams, but the team will go for a big-name add in the outfield that already includes Oudebel Herrera and Aaron Altherr. Moving Williams creates space. As for the former Pirates headed their way? Organizational fodder, although McGuire fills a catching slot. For the Blue Jays, Arauz will probably make the bigs, Davis probably won’t. But that’s what prospect roulette is all about.

Now, over to St. Louis, who has a catching prospect ready for the big-leagues in Kelly, but is blocked til the next decade by Yadier Molina. And rookie phenom DeJong still has to outlive his sophomore season and the potential jinx (Aledmys Diaz anyone?). And the constant stream of Cardinal pitching prospects will barely notice a dip into the waters to lose Mayers. And in return, one of the three best third-baseman in baseball, Donaldson, plus their new closer in Osuna and a catcher to replace Kelly, but with a new best-arrival date of next decade, in Pentecost. In different times, Donaldson and Pentecost get the deal done. Probably. If the Cardinals can work out an extension with Donaldson first. But to NOT have the guarantee in place with Donaldson costs the long-term controllable Osuna. St. Loo might have to throw in another prospect, with Austin Gomber, a left-handed hurler at the AA level making some sense.

DeJong immediately fills the bill for Tulowitzki’s replacement, giving Richard Urena more time to mature with a full season in Buffalo. Urena, Bichette and Guerrero percolate for another year. And infield group of those three, DeJong and Delicate Devon Travis means having good, young talent, enhanced by one more year of Goins for some guidance. Plus, there’s Lourdes Gourriel en route and he’s an all-rounder who hopefully comes along at the plate, in which case, the Jays will have a LOT of interchangeable parts to man the infield and cover as fifth outfielders.

Carson Kelly jumps the Jays’ queue of catchers, giving Dan Jansen a season in Buffalo to get better. Once he proves his offensive dream season this season is sustainable, the Blue Jays could be looking at a Kelly-Jansen tandem with Russell Martin around for guidance, to act as a third catcher and do a little backing up at DH, 3B and maybe 2B, if necessary. Or, a Martin tandem with one of the kids might play for two or three years. The Jays also might be able to replace Stroman in the starting line-up with Mayers, or he might head to the bullpen to compete with the likes of Tom Koehler or he might be the plug-in starter awaiting problems in Buffalo. But he’s close. And that counts in the winter.

Which leaves me trying to explain giving the New York Mets three members of their starting 25 on opening day next year, without getting possibly anything in the deal. It’ll be tough losing Pillar, he of the Superman-quality catches. But all highlights aside, he’s NOT the gold-glove centre fielder he’s portrayed as. In fact, he trails Kevin Keiermayer again and has fallen behind Byron Buxton. Add in his in ability to get his offence going, and now’s the time to sell. Another season at the end of the Blue Jays’ batting line-up, with little reason to move him up, might leave Toronto with an untradeable, but popular, trade asset. And the Jays have outfielders in the pipeline. The same reason can be applied to Pearce, who’s rep is better than we saw this year, and to Loup, who is an example of the old Branch Rickey saw, “Better to trade a player a year too soon than a year too late.” Loup regained some of his mojo this year, and remember, it’s LEFT-handed mojo. Out now, before the trade idea starts to stink.

Harvey, the possible Stroman replacement and possible new Brett Anderson, is the lottery ticket here. He’s an ace a year away from free agency (and given who his agent is, it’s almost guaranteed free agency). A good year and the Jays recoup a prospect in the 30’s. Something less than a good year, then the Jays didn’t spend much money. C’est la vie. Jhoan Urena is a corner guy and Crismat a pitcher. Neither should show up before Russell Martin retires. But both are good bets to at least make The Show. But this whole trade is about selling declining assets for a shot at Harvey for a season and a draft pick. And who knows, maybe Harvey succeeds and likes Toronto enough to want to stay. Hey, ask Marco Estrada if that’s possible. 

So, what line-up does John Gibbons trot out in 2018? Martin will catch and Justin Smoak will play first base. Beyond that? Well, it’s nice to think Travis will man second all year long. Not a great bet, but a big winner if it comes true. DeJong will start at shortstop and Franco at third. The outfield will have Teoscar Hernandez in centre, with Nick Williams in right. In left? One of Anthony Alford, Dwight Smith Jr. or Dalton Pompey will be in that spot come season’s start. Pompey’s in a make or leave situation. The other two can be in Buffalo. Which means I think Pompey might have an inside edge, if only he can stay healthy. The DH will be Kendrys Morales. He was an asset this year, barely. Next year he won’t be. And he’ll finish his contract as a pinch-hitter. He is what he is, a mistake that’s nowhere as huge as has been portrayed, but a mistake indeed. His switch-hitting power doesn’t play given his slothfulness on the base-paths. The subs? Kelly to play 60 cames as catcher, Goins, Ezequiel Carrerra as the fourth outfielder (and possible LF starter) and a 3B-type free agent who might get at bats in a platoon with Franco. Or Urena, who would be better off playing full-time in Buffalo at every infield spot. But I’ll stick with a one-year free agent. That’s the 13 slots for offence.

The pitching staff will be J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, Brett Anderson and Joe Biagini/Matt Harvey. The loser of THAT battle will battle Tom Koehler for the long-man on the relief staff. The new closer will be Carlos Ramirez. He’ll probably give up a run in 2018. Probably. Ryan Tepera, Danny Barnes and Dominic Leone seem like a decent trio of righties. The left-handed alternatives are a little … young … in Tim Mayza and Matt Dermody. But having shown they CAN pitch in the majors this year, hopefully the bullpen will remain a strength. If not, bullpens can be rebuilt on the fly. The key is Ramirez coming in and doing a reasonable impression of Osuna at a fraction of the price.

In all, the Jays will lose the contracts of Donaldson, Tulowitzki and Jose Bautista, as well as Loup, Osuna, Pilar, Pearce and Stroman. That’s something approaching $80 million in 2018 potential compensation. The incoming players won’t total a fourth of that. The Shapiro-Atkins tandem COULD immediately start spending some of that money themselves. Getting sixth, seventh and eighth starters wouldn’t be a bad idea. The talent clock HAS been reset to 2019-2020, with enough pitching to make Gibbons feel comfortable about that. And the newly athletic and multi-postional capable squad would be fun to let run and rip.

In fact, what WOULD 2019 look like if Guerrero and Bichette over-achieve again? The catching duo would probably be Kelly and Jansen. If not, Martin would back-up there, at third, maybe at second and take the occasional turn through the DH spot. The 1B would be Smoak and Travis would still be at second. The left-side of the infield would be best buddies Guerrero and Bichette, with DeJong and Franco being delegated to back-up duties along with Martin. The OF would be Alford, Hernandez and Williams. The extra outfielder would be Gourriel. And Morales would pinch-hit. (Actually, Franco would probably be traded if both Kelly and Jansen make the team). The DH? Rowdy Tellez. The starting five pitchers would be Sanchez, (the perpetually re-signing) Estrada, Ryan Borucki, Mayers and Biagini/Anderson. The relievers would be the same set or some combination that includes about the same mount of talent and payroll. And one OTHER guy would be signed. Either a big bucks starting pitcher (or two) or a closer (assuming Ramirez fails in next year’s audition). As I said earlier, maybe Harvey likes Toronto.

And the pitching talent would be starting to arrive. Sean Reid-Foley, Connor Greene, Jon Harris, Tom Pannone, Justin Maese, Crismat, TJ Zeuch, Luis Perdomo and Arauz. Jordan Romano, Francisco Rios and Shane Dawson have their fans. The big bet on Ramirez is hedged by Nate Pearson, who merely turned in a sub 1.00 ERA in leading Vancouver to a title. He’s pitching starting pitcher innings right now, but profiles as a closer … if that position is open.

Logan Warmouth, Richard Urena, Jhoan Urena, Tim Lopes and Smith, Jr. would be potential backups. On a viable Major League team. With a payroll that beggars the addition of a big-time Free Agent. Or three. Alas, no spot for should be Blue-Jay lifer Goins. Sigh. But DeJong, Bichette, Warmouth and even Gourriel are shortstops by vocation. So's Richard Urena.

All for the price for a learning season this coming year. An EXCITING season.

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