Who's going to win March Madness. I dunno. And if anybody says THEY know, then start the comparisons to other pathological liars we know and don't much love. This is NOT a year for unequivocal predictions.
Who do I THINK is going to win? I entered in 13 pools at ESPN/TSN and picked EIGHT DIFFERENT WINNERS. But the one I entered in first had Virginia ripping down the nets.
I corresponded with my friend Frank last night and I had this to say: "It's going to be Virginia over Michigan State in the final. The Wahoos become team number four to go from unranked to the penthouse game, and will be the second to actually win the thing. ONE of the other three is the legendary Loyola Ramblers who beat Mississippi St in the first whites vs blacks game for an SEC team before losing to Cinncinati team in the final. Fitting that that team is back in the dance this year.
Virgina has coaching, three guards, tough defence, three-point shooting and are coming in on a roll. Outside of NBA lottery draft talent, they check all the boxes. They DO have a chip on their shoulders. Unranked pre-season and all. Michigan State has coaching, tough defence, three-point shooting and a bigger chip. Having Miles Bridges get out of the spotlight by paying 40 bucks to charity takes ALLLLLL the mental pressure off of a school that's been nothing but bad news for six months. Their guard play will hurt them, but having two lottery picks sort of off-sets that.
Arizona (coaching, three-point shooting, HUUUUUGE chip and lottery talent) makes sense for a final four, if Virginia wasn't on the itinerary. That said, the Wildgattos de Zona are my number two pick, NOT the Spartans. What about Villanova? The problem with THOSE Wildcats is the lack of a chip, which is odd for the normally junkyard dog Philly school. The 'cats won the whole thing too recently. And their draft talent is a lottery ticket AND Jalen Brunson. Not the other way round. I just think they are vulnerable to big teams and the Spartans are REAL big. Big enough to handle the Dukies before that.
I'm leaning Gonzaga over North Carolina. Xavier doesn't impress me at ALL. The ONE GAME I want to see is the one that creates Xavier's vanquisher on the weekend. I am VERY interested in Missouri with Porter, Michael back in the line-up. I liked Missouri the last time I saw them and if Porter is the guy who people thinks he is (hopefully NOT the chucker from his first game back), then Missouri MIGHT be the story of the tournament. If not, Florida State going to the second week would qualify. But I BADLY want to see the Mizzou-Seminole game. "
I'm REALLY off first week upsets. Maybe Xavier, as I said. And that really depends on Missouri and both Porters being what people thought the Tigers might be at the beginning of the year. I think Florida State CAN beat Xavier, but I'm more hopeful it will be Mizzou. Texas is sort of in the same boat with the recent return of Mo Bamba, who I thought might be THE guy this year ... until I saw Deandre Ayton of Arizona. Put Texas as a maybe, along with potential one-guy star shows resulting in upsets for Oklahoma (Trae Young) and Alabama (Collin Sexton). But honestly, the only first-round upsets I see are #10 Butler over Arkansas in the East and #9 NC State as the obligatory 9/8 winner over Seton Hall in the MidWest. On the weekend, Florida and West Virginia feel like teams to go upsetting in the East. Beyond that, bupkus.
Which gets you to the second week of the tournament and sixteen teams with championship dreams, half of them legitimate. I'd be hugely disappointed to see Kentucky make it there, even with a good Canadian kid Shai Gilgeous-Alexander running the point. Oily John Calipari did his schtick on ESPN Bracketology Sunday night and reminded me how much I dislike the guy. Given his track record and Memphis and UMass, how in the world does this whole FBI investigation into bad things in college basketball game NOT INVOLVE HIM? Arizona is a team on a mission to finish out the careers of Ayton, Alonzo Trier, Rawle Atkins and coach Sean Miller with a vengeance. IF Miller's voice is matched against his real voice on that tape discussing money and Ayton, he's going to be cashiered out of the NCAA, probably for life. He'll get the Dwane Casey treatment in spite of being from coaching royalty (brother, father). That will be because he will be guilty of the one crime the NCAA can't overlook, getting caught by real law enforcement. And given Casey got five years DESPITE BEING INNOCENT, I figure the Miller penalty will be life plus a day. That is why I have Arizona as my number two choice.
The second and third week's of this year's NCAA will be the best in recent memory. THAT I PROMISE YOU.
Last thought: Jalen Brunson, Wendell Carter Jr., Miles Bridges, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Gary Trent Jr., Grayson Allen, Hamidou Diallo, Devonte Graham, Allonzo Trier, Rawle Atkins. Stars or pretty good players all. Not one of them is the player the NBA expects to call from their team FIRST when the draft goes this summer. One more reminder of why the pro game and the college game are so different.
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