Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Mr. Bergevin, Line 1 is for You

I'd like to call Marc Bergevin and tell him  how to go about his business because his business has been hurting. And when the Montreal Canadiens hurt, so do I. Don't quite have the chutzpah though.

Bergevin has managed himself and his team into a corner. There's a lot of talk about taking advantage of the third pick in the draft because the Habs went through all kinds of unhappy to earn the pick. Just as they did the year they made Alexander Galchenyuk their solution for the future and for the past unhappiness of THAT season. Galchenyuk never realized the potential he showed in his first year and was shipped off to the Desert Gulag of Arizona in return for Max Domi, seen by many as Galchenyuk-lite. I actually think the swap works out well for Montreal. I think Domi's determination makes him a better end of a "New Start" trade. I like the worker over the artiste most times. And maybe Max CAN play centre. Or maybe not. The evidence that Jonathan Druin can seems even more ephemeral.

So here's the off-season advice for Bergevin to stumble upon as he strolls through blog after blog telling him ... well ... stuff! I'll be more compassionate. Although if he FAILS to do EXACTLY as I say, I will join the chorus to have his hide astride a pole somewhere in the depths of Hell. Or worse.

I do NOT stake my whole draft on a reach for a kid from Finland who won't be in Montral Blue, Blanc et Rouge for at LEAST another season. The ticking clock on the careers of Shea Weber and Carey Price simply won't permit that strategy. So, I reach out and let Paul Statsny know he can come home to his home province of Quebec. I'm hoping 5.5 for four years gets his signature on a free-agent contract. If it's six by four, so be it. I have my second-line centre, a defensively-responsible defender who scores. And that's just too rare in Montreal this decade. I also bring back Tomas Plekanec for a year-by-year contract arrangement. He'll play the fourth centre spot and can cover up a line or two for brief periods of time. And he is a Montreal lifer, despite doing hard time in Toronto post trade deadline in the spring. We'll ignore that blot on his record, as most Montrealers ignore Toronto anyways. I'd think 2.5 for the season would get him, but I'd still buy in at 3. And by doing that, some of the pain over the loss of Andrei Markov before last season might be repaired. Montreal SHOULD honour those that honour it.

Montreal still needs a bit more help on defence and I'd like to take a flyer on John Moores, a three-year 2.5M kind of guy who might add some scoring back to the back-line and he's sneaky tough too. So, we are talking 10.5M annually for the three, which is less than John Tavares will get. Of course, I'd TALK to Tavares, but I think he stays in Long Island with (probable) in-coming coach Barry Trotz and the Lou Lamoriello touch in the head office.

Which STILL leaves a considerable bit of payroll space and I use it all up PDQ with a three-team trade that I think works for all three teams. Naturally, it resolves most of Montreal's problems and DOES include a division-mate who might not want to help Montreal all that much, but the Habs DO have some candy to deal and relatively new GMs in rebuilding situations have been told ad nauseum that draft picks are the King's Gold of hockey assets. So, here it goes:

Montreal gets Ryan O'Reilly and Risto Routsalainen from Buffalo, along with a third rounder this year from Vancouver and a seventh rounder from Vancouver next year.

Vancouver gets that third pick in the first round from Montreal, as well as Montreal's sixth rounder and Buffalo's seventh rounder next year.

Buffalo (the linchpin of course) gets Max Pacioretty from Montreal, Vancouver's first round pick this year (seventh overall) and the THREE BEST second round draft picks this year from Montreal (which starts with four).

Hmmmmm, the Habs get their first-line centre (or second, it's semantics, given Stastny) and a defenceman to add to the mix of bounce-back candidates, plus some lottery tickets. In losing the captain, Montreal takes on long term commitment of 12M a year, where as Pacioretty is on a sterling 4.5M for one more year. A net add-on of 7.5M. And with it, the remainder of the Habs' payroll. It also means Drouin is a winger. And so is Domi. And so is Brett Gallagher and Arturri Lehkonen and Paul Byron and Charles Hudon and Nicolas Deslauriers and Andrew Shaw. Phillip Danault gets the third-line centre spot. Not a great dozen, but one that makes sense in the NHL. Lots of speed, maybe a lack of proven goal-scoring. But a decent dozen. There's a BIT of disaster insurance in Laval, hopefully made better by new coaching. Can you imagine power plays with both Gallagher and Domi in front of the net?

As for defence, Ristolainen was highly thought of (just look at his contract) as recently as two years ago. If the Habs are selling low on Pacioretty, so are the Sabres with Ristolainen. But not too low. Buffalo gets a boatload of picks to make after the kick off the draft Friday with Rasmus Dahlin. The club clears the way for Casey Mittelstadt to play second-line minutes behind Jack Eichel. They add leadership and a power-play asset in Pacioretty, paving the way for a potential contract extension if the two sides think it's a good fit. If not, they are saving maybe lost dollars for Ristolainen and awkward dollars for O'Reilly. And the larders will be freshly filled with second-rounders plus that pick six picks after Dahlen and likely to be another defenceman. I think this makes enough sense for Buffalo to trade two roster players for one and to trade intra-division.

Vancouver now moves up and can draft the last of the B level players. Dahlin is alone in the A class this year, but the B class isn't much bigger with just the two players, Andrei Svechnikov and Filip Zadina. Both seem gilt-edged. Now Vancouver will be able to claim one or the other. Not that having a pick from the next six or so would be unpleasant. In fact, I wanted Montreal to take winger Brady Tkachuk third, before hatching this trade and sign plan. But all of the six next best players have some doubts attached to their game. Adding two lottery tickets AND moving up into guaranteed slotting seems a good price to pay for their own pick at seven and a third this year, plus that seventh round swap next year.

This is a trade with legs. It has to be paired with the free agent signings. But if Bergevin wants to keep his job, something similar to this has to be done. Or else the trident is at hand.

No comments: