When Gord Ash took over as GM of the Toronto Blue Jays, the club was not that far removed from winning back to back world championships. A tough standard to meet, but try he did. After seven years of trying ... and failing to live up to that ideal, he was replaced by Oakland front officer J.P. Ricciardi. He's now had seven years at the helm, so it seems fair to take a look at how the basic building block of a major league team, the draft, was handled by each guy.
First, let me point out that I'm just looking at the first four rounds. Later draft picks that pan out, like Jesse Litsch, pitching so well against KC today, are much more luck than not. Elsewise, they would have been drafted earlier. So kudos go to the scout that pushed for drafting Litsch, less so to Ricciardi for finally listening to him. Is that fair? I think it is, but I thought I'd get the point out front to begin with.
FIRST DRAFT
Ash took Roy Halladay 17th overall in 1995. He followed up by grabbing another border-line major-leaguer in Craig Wilson in the second round. Third and fourth rounders Jeff Maloney and Mike Whitlock respectively never panned out. Ash basically did as well as he could possibly have done in drafting Halladay, but missed out on Carlos Beltran, Brett Tomko and third-rounders like Ryan Dempster, Bronson Arroyo, JJ Putz and Russ Ortiz in drafting Wilson.
Ricciardi's first draft in 2002 saw him nab Russ Adams 14th overall. Dave Bush came in the second round and Adam Peterson in the fourth round. All three are AAAA prospects it seems, having gotten some major league exposure. Third rounder Justin Marneau was a never-was. The litany of coulda-been Jays reads like a who's who of hot talent. First-rounders after Adams included Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, Royce Ring, James Loney, Joe Blanton, Robinson Cano, Jeff Francouer, and Mark Teahen. After Bush in the second round, we have Jon Lester, Jonathon Broxton, Jesse Crain, Brian McCann and fourth-rounder Delwyn Young.
First round goes to Ash.
SECOND DRAFT
The sophomore jinx hit Ash hard in 1996. THREE first round picks in 1996 led to drafting Billy Koch fourth, Joey Lawrence 16th and Peter Tucci 31st. Brent Abernathy was a ninth pick in the second round while the third round saw the Jays nab Yan Lachappelle fourth and Clayton Andrews ninth. Ryan Stromsberg was a whiff at fourth in the fourth. The missed future big leaguers included first-rounders Mark Kotsay, Eric Chavez, Dee Brown, Eric Milton, Scott Linebrink, Gil Meche and Jason Marquis. Jacque Jones went too early in the second for drafting, but after came Jimmy Rollins, Eric Muson, Scott Schoenweiss, AJ Hinch, Shawn Chacon, Alex Cora and Nick Johnson. Koch's early flameout affects this draft grade. Had he maintained his rookie year credentials, he would have been on a par with all but Rollins. But he didn't. And Abernathy had a similarly quick rise and fall.
2003 was Ricciardi's best draft. He got Aaron Hill 14th in the first round, Josh Banks 13th in the second round and Shaun Marcum 13th in the third round. Kurt Isenberg, the 13th pick in the fourth round, broke a decent streak. Both Hill and Marcum are contributing Blue Jays, two of the four drafted by Ricciardi to be able to say so. Banks was a near miss. However, in lauding Ricciardi here, let's take a look at the coulda-been list. First rounders Chad Cordero, Chad Billingsley, Daric Barton, Matt Murton, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Adam Jones each have had moments of Hill-like success. Second-rounder Andre Ethier would have been a better pick than Banks. And you know, fourth-rounders Jon Papelbon and Michael Bourn might have looked good in Blue Jay blue (or black or whatever horrid color combo the present-day regime thinks is 'cool').
Second round goes to Ricciardi, because Koch flamed out after being traded for Eric Hinske who flamed out before being traded for ... cash.
THIRD DRAFT
Ash was a draft pick short in 1997, making do with Vernon Wells as the fifth overall pick and then failures Billy Brown and Woody Heath as the fifth picks in the third and fourth rounds respectively. It was a lousy overall draft. Ash missed out on Chase Utley, who went early in the second round. Third rounders he could have grabbed included Jeremy Affeldt and Scott Downs (who ended up in T.O. anyway). Fourth-rounders who made it big, relatively speaking, included Eric Byrnes, Xavier Nady and the best of that bunch, Chone Figgins. Wells is a pretty decent return from what was a motley group of talent.
It was the misses that make Ricciardi's potentially decent draft in 2004 look suspect. He got David Purcey 16th and Zach Jackson 32nd in the first round, missing Philip Hughes, Josh Fields and Taylor Tankersley. Second rounder Curtis Thigpen would make the draft IF he ends up being a major-league catcher and not a back-up first baseman, as has been surmised. On the other hand, the Jays COULD have had Dustin Pedroia, Hunter Pence or Kirt Suzuki with that pick. Adam Lind at 12 in the third round MIGHT work out well for somebody else, since the Jays outfield of the future doesn't include him. Danny Hill four picks later would have been better spent on fourth-rounder Casey Janssen, who's career flared last year, but might be over to arm surgery this year.
With one Wells being worth two to five backups, Ash wins this round. Third round to Ash.
FOURTH DRAFT
Ash's 1998 draft was basically a one and done affair. He grabbed Felipe Lopez eighth in the first round, waiting until Ryan Bundy went eighth in the fourth round to end a desultory top part of the draft. Lopez looked like a bright light, but like Billy Koch before him, didn't pan out in the long run. Better the Jays could have taken first-rounders Carlos Pena, Jeff Weaver, Brad Lidge, CC Sabathia, future Jay Brad Wilkerson, Aaron Rowand and Mark Prior, or second-rounders Adam Dunn and Brandon Inge, or third-rounders Barry Zito, Mike Maroth or Josh Fogg.
Ricciardi ALSO had a short 2005 draft at the top. Picking sixth, the current GM drafted Ricky Romero in the first round, Brian Pettway in the third and Ryan Patterson in the fourth. None is a major leaguer, although Romero has bullpen potential it seems ... if he can stay healthy. The missed first rounders to draft Romero included Troy Tulowitzki, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza, Jay Bruce and Cody Rasmus. I discussed the why's of missing out on Tulowitzki earlier. The rest of the missed choices have no such 'excuse.'
Lopez might not have reached his potential, but he still bests Romero. The misses seem to even out. So this round goes to Ash.
FIFTH DRAFT
Alex Rios, the 19th pick in the 1999 draft makes Ash's round of picks a better-than-average effort. Mike Snyder failed for a second rounder and Matt Ford only had a cup of coffee coming in the third round. Brian Cardwell was a fourth-round whiff. The coulda-beens included first rounder Brian Roberts and second-rounder Carl Crawford, who went before Snyder. Others missed included third-rounders Justin Morneau, Willie Bloomqvist, Jon Rauch and Hank Blalock. Fourth-rounder Kevin Mench DID find his way to Toronto.
Oddly enough Ricciardi's draft in 2006 has an eerie look to it. Travis Snider, the talented 14th pick, looks to be a very Rios-like hitter and might end up bookending Vernon Wells with Rios at the end of next season. He WAS on a pace to do just that, but has flopped badly this year. Too early to tell. But the key to evaluating Snider versus Rios is the fact he's nowhere near the fielder that Rios is. To this point, Ian Kennedy seems to be the main first-round miss. The Jays didn't have picks for the next two rounds, due to signing free agents (how'd that work out for Toronto?). Fourth-rounder Brandon Magee is a LOOONG way away from the big leagues at this point.
With Snider still a 'potential' rather than a sure thing, this round has to go to Ash.
THE REST OF THE DRAFTS
With Ash forced to draft with signability rather than ability as the key feature, he was hamstrung. Similarly, it's too early to evaluate the last two drafts for Ricciardi. So here's some facts on Ash's drafts. In 2000, Ash drafted Miguel Negron 18th in a pure money move. He missed out on Boof Bonser, Scott Thorman and Aaron Heilman. He did get Dustin McGowan 33rd overall as a sandwich pick. Pete Bauer and Dominic Rich didn't work out as second rounders, nor Morrow Davis in the third and Raul Tablado in the fourth. Missed second rounders included Bobby Hill, Xavier Nady (again!), Lance Niekro, Manny Delcarmen and future Jay Brian Tallet. This BIG misses were third-rounder Grady Sizemore and fourth-rounder David Dejesus. That fourth round also featured Cliff Lee, Yadier Molina, Koyie Hill and Laynce Nix.
Ash's last draft in 2001 helped the Jays as much as all but one of Ricciardi's drafts. Gabe Gross went 15th in the first round and Brandon League in the same spot in the second round. AAAA prospect Tyrell Godwin was the third-rounder and never-was Chris Sheffield went in the fourth round. The slim pickings COULD have included Bobby Crosby, Jeremy Bonderman, Aaron Heilman (again!), future Jay failure John-Ford Griffin and Noah Lowry. After that, not much. Danny Haren (the star of the lot) and Neil Cotts were there in the second round, Jerry Hairston in the third round and Kyle Davies in the fourth round. You could argue that Gross and League are no worse than fourth and fifth of the available players. And League still attracts interest.
Riccardi's 2007 draft is stil awaiting analysis. There's evidence that Ricky Porcello and Andrew Brackman might have been better first round picks than Kevin Ahrens or J.P. Arencibia.
CONCLUSION
Throwing out Ash's final two years because of financial constraints made by the Belgian Beer Barons isn't all that fair. In the five years that we did evaluate, it sure seems Ash did better. When Ash (and to be fair, his staff) connected, it was for All-Star level players. To date, all Ricciardi (and to be fair, his staff) has to show for drafts are Aaron Hill, Shaun Marcum, Jesse Litsch (ruled out of consideration earlier) and some 25th-man type of players.
It's not that difficult to come to an inescapable conclusion. Ash was the better drafter of the two GM's, yet wasn't good enough to keep his job.
No comments:
Post a Comment