So, who do you like in the NCAA's?
Heard that question twice last week and had to answer, truthfully, that I didn't know. The scuttlebutt was that a North Carolina title win over UCLA would surprise no one. But I had been less than impressed with both teams in the few games I'd seen them play this year. Not sure things have changed much after yesterday's interesting day of play.
The highlight was the nightcap, UNC's big win over Duke AT Duke by eight points. It was really a four-point game with add-on free throws, but it was a telling victory in a lot of ways. I don't think either team is a lock final four squad.
North Carolina got out to a big first-half lead, blasting the Dukies on the boards and guarding the three-point shot that Duke loves so much. A perfect template for an athletic perimeter team with good rebounders. Such teams exist in the NCAA and Duke will meet a couple of them on the way to the final four. That will end their trip prematurely, I think.
However, in the second half, Duke showed the way past North Carolina, rallying to tie and then to actually take the lead on their home court. This is why the crazed fans camped out in front of Cameron Indoor Stadium starting in DECEMBER, to get seats to this game. The passion and the beauty of the collegiate basketball game, all wrapped up into one spectacular night. Duke also supplied the template for beating North Carolina. Avoid turnovers and treat Tyler Hansbrough with respect, but no deference. The Tarheel free-throw leader, Hansbrough often gets fouled by zealous shot blockers. The Blue Devils chose to contest his shots without fouling. Turns out, that's a good idea.
It came down to an end-of-game cold spell by the Duke three-point shooters, Gerald Henderson being the key-turner for the final minute. The week before, Tyrese Rice of Boston College had almost three-pointed the TarHeels out of the number one ranking himself.
Nope, North Carolina needs a fully-healthy Ty Lawson back before I'm ready to anoint them as the faves. They have comeback ability, and that's good. But if last night's performance by the undersized Duke front line is any indication, the leading factor in the Tarheels' dominance this year has a downside.
What about UCLA? Two narrow wins this week either show UCLA can win close ones or that they are playing down to the opposition. The win over Cal yesterday was as contentious as was the win over Stanford. Different set of officials might have turned both of those wins into losses. On the other hand, the ridiculous rule against shooting from behind the backboard is one of basketball's true head-scratchers. If you extend the basket INTO the playing court area, then why not mark on the floor where you CAN'T SHOOT FROM! Josh Shipp's shot hit nothing but net. Against the rules or not, it was a great play.
Still, you get the feeling that UCLA is all about health. Fully healthy, THIS is the team to beat. But can it get healthy?
The other top teams, including Memphis, Tennessee, Kansas and Texas all have flaws. I used to ride Florida in the NCAAs, but got off the bandwagon JUST in time for the Gators to win a pair of titles. I've been bandwagon jumpers with Kansas AND Texas the past few years. My gut tells me Kansas can't win, but they are getting healthy at the right time and I think Brandon Rush is one of the under-rated players in the country. If I say no way, count on Kansas enjoying some home cooking while winning it all.
John Calipari, only the second coach to ever win 30 plus games in three straight years, is the reason I'm down on Memphis. He just finds ways to lose in final fours (or earlier). The Dribble Drive Motion offence he's run this year surprised lots of teams early. Given time and now copious amounts of film to analyse, I just see his team getting stopped. Derrick Rose is a star in the making, but rookie point guards always give me a chill, Mike Bibby notwithstanding.
Tennessee was not far off a title last year and could come back. I hate that they took over the top seed in the country and then handed it right back two days later by losing to Vanderbilt, not that Vandy isn't capable of beating any team in the country on a given night. A big clutch win in the NCAA's might give their next opponent an opportunity to take advantage of a sluggish start. This combo is all too likely.
Texas is too young overall.
So, what about surprise teams. USC looked like world-beaters yesterday. I don't understand how an elite eight team from last year could lose a couple of guards to the NBA, BUT add O.J. Mayo and NOT be considered a title threat. Obviously, there's been some growing pains. But Mayo's the real deal. If you wanted somebody from the back of the pack, you could do a lot worse than place a long-shot bet on the Trojans.
I don't think Arizona is healthy enough to make it a trio of West Coast title threats. Nobody from the Pacific Northwest will contend. Moving to the Central states, Texas A&M wins and loses, often by big scores. Baylor's a nicer story than a threat. Michael Beasley's a beast, but only has Bill Walker for company on a Kansas State team that is not title threat at all. And won't be next year, with Beasley having been drafted number one overall in the NBA draft.
The Big Ten is basically Wisconsin, wounded Indiana and some over-achieving wannabes, like Purdue. Wisconsin is a team no one wants to play, but everybody thinks they can beat. Somebody will be right. Indiana's wounds are largely self-inflicted after the resignation of coach Kelvin Sampson. Can Dan Dakich match Steve Fisher and take over a NCAA titlist late in the season? No. But catch Eric Gordon in Indiana colours while you can.
Georgetown won the Big East over Louisville yesterday. It's been a down year for the conference and Georgetown hasn't exactly dominated this year. I thought they might, but it didn't happen. Wouldn't surprise me to see three Big East teams in the elite eight, or none. I DO think USC's east-coast equivalent might very well be UConn, where the Huskies are surprising lots of people by sitting starters and winning. Hasheem Thabeet is looking more like Dikembe Motumbo and less like Manute Bol. And you can't argue Jim Calhoun's coaching creds.
Mid-Majors have been surprises that last couple of years. Xavier seems to have taken over Gonzaga's role this year as the team nobody respects, but fears. They play tough basketball. The question is, can they play with the big boys? I'd say yes, but I haven't seen the evidence to back that up. Elite eight and a close miss for the final four.
Sooooo, who do I like in the NCAA's this year. I could give Kansas the kiss of death and call for them to beat UCLA in the final, or I could let them rest easy and predict UCLA over Tennessee in the final, with Kansas and USC filling out the final four. That feels about right.
But I really want the Jayhawks to win.
No comments:
Post a Comment